Israel’s general election has produced no clear winner in the first exit polls, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc projected to fall short of a parliamentary majority despite his Likud party remaining the largest individual party.
Projections published after voting closed on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, put the main opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot narrowly ahead of the parties supporting Netanyahu. However, neither side has secured a clear path to the 61 seats needed to control Israel’s 120-member Knesset.
What the Israeli election exit polls show
Israel’s Channel 12 exit poll projected 52 seats for the Jewish-led opposition bloc, 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc and 18 for Arab-led parties that have not been counted within either main bloc. Channel 12 also projected 24 seats for Netanyahu’s Likud and 22 for Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party.
Other broadcasters reported slightly different figures. The Kan public broadcaster projected 53 seats for the opposition, 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc and 17 for Arab-led parties. Channel 14, a broadcaster generally seen as sympathetic to Netanyahu, gave his bloc a substantially stronger 60 seats, still one short of a majority.
These numbers are exit poll projections, not the official result. Changes during the count, particularly in the fortunes of smaller parties near the electoral threshold, could alter the eventual distribution of seats.
Why the Arab-led parties could be decisive
Arab-led parties are projected to secure 17 or 18 seats in several major exit polls, a substantial increase on their representation in the outgoing Knesset. Their support, opposition or decision to abstain could affect whether a government can be formed.
However, the opposition’s numerical lead does not automatically translate into power. Eisenkot has largely ruled out forming a coalition with the Arab-led parties, while Netanyahu also faces difficulties assembling 61 seats. An opposition minority government supported from outside by some of those parties is one possible scenario, but no such arrangement has been agreed.
Turnout reaches 77.7%
Israel’s Central Elections Committee reported turnout of 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades and approximately seven percentage points above the 2022 election. The vote was the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza and elsewhere in the region.
Netanyahu faced criticism over the security failures preceding the October 2023 attacks as well as his government’s conduct during the wars that followed. Eisenkot, a former military chief who joined and later left Netanyahu’s wartime cabinet, campaigned as a rival with extensive security experience.
What happens next?
Votes are still being counted. Once the results are established, President Isaac Herzog will consult political parties and ask the candidate he considers most likely to form a government to attempt to do so. Coalition negotiations could take weeks.
If no workable majority emerges, Israel could face another election. Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister during negotiations, meaning the exit polls do not establish that he has lost office.
What we know and what remains uncertain
- Known: Voting closed on 27 October and the major networks released their initial exit polls.
- Projected: Likud is the largest individual party in several polls, while the Jewish-led opposition bloc leads Netanyahu’s bloc in most major projections.
- Uncertain: The final seat totals, which parties will co-operate and who will ultimately form the next government.
